A region-specific raw material and lithium-ion battery criticality methodology with an assessment of NMC cathode technology
Matthew Greenwood, Marc Wentker, Jens Leker
Abstract
Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are the world’s fastest growing battery technology. In order to sustain such rapid growth, it is necessary to secure stable access to the necessary materials. This study demonstrates the use of a methodology developed to quantify regional supply risk by examining the five largest global producers of LIB cells: China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. NMC cathode technology is examined in depth along with its component metals cobalt, manganese, lithium, and nickel. Data is collected over the 2005–2018 time window to allow for analyses of both averaged risks and trends. It is found that each region studied has a unique supply situation with its own areas of high and low risk which change over time, sometimes significantly. While supply risks of individual metals sometimes vary widely between regions, Western regions are found to have overall lower technology supply risks than Asian regions, though this is likely partially due to Asia’s current dominance in LIB cell production. The predicted future dominance of nickel-rich NMC cathodes is also examined, which suggests that the United States and China will likely benefit due to their low nickel risks.