A fractional-order mathematical model for examining the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 in the presence of vaccine distribution
Adedapo Ismaila Alaje, Morufu Oyedunsi Olayiwola
Abstract
The spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 has had a great impact on understanding and addressing the global pandemic. Through analysis of the geographical distribution and temporal patterns of the virus, the hotspot of the virus can be easily detected, giving insights into where intervention is most needed. In this study, an efficient method is presented for solving a fractional-order diffusive epidemic model of COVID-19 that incorporates vaccination and is applied to study the spatiotemporal spread of the disease. The method’s convergence is discussed, and the results are found to be applicable and efficient for numerical simulations. The proposed mathematical model is analyzed for its positivity, existence, and uniqueness of solution to demonstrate its feasibility to study physical problems, and a series of numerical simulations are conducted to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 in response to vaccine uptake and distribution modeled using the Caputo fractional order derivative. The impact of vaccine uptake and distribution is extensively discussed, and conclusions are drawn.