On the pointlessness of machine learning based time delayed prediction of TBM operational data
Georg H. Erharter, Thomas Marcher
Abstract
In tunneling, predictions of the rockmass conditions ahead of the face are of great interest to be able to take appropriate countermeasures at the right time. Besides investigations like drilling or geophysics, new approaches in mechanized tunneling aim at forecasting the geology ahead via Machine Learning models. These models are trained to forecast tunnel boring machine data by learning from recorded data in already excavated parts of the tunnel. Simply judging from high accuracies, these results may look promising at the first sight, but forecasts like this are mostly just delayed and slightly altered versions of the input data and no predictive value can result from them. This paper shows deficits in the current practice of data driven forecasts ahead of the tunnel face and raises impetus for further research in this particular field and TBM data analysis in general.