The predictive model for COVID-19 pandemic plastic pollution by using deep learning method
Yaser A. Nanehkaran, Zhu Licai, Mohammad Azarafza, Sona Talaei, Xu Jinxia, Junde Chen, Reza Derakhshani
Abstract
Pandemic plastics (e.g., masks, gloves, aprons, and sanitizer bottles) are global consequences of COVID-19 pandemic-infected waste, which has increased significantly throughout the world. These hazardous wastes play an important role in environmental pollution and indirectly spread COVID-19. Predicting the environmental impacts of these wastes can be used to provide situational management, conduct control procedures, and reduce the COVID-19 effects. In this regard, the presented study attempted to provide a deep learning-based predictive model for forecasting the expansion of the pandemic plastic in the megacities of Iran. As a methodology, a database was gathered from February 27, 2020, to October 10, 2021, for COVID-19 spread and personal protective equipment usage in this period. The dataset was trained and validated using training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets by a deep neural network (DNN) procedure to forecast pandemic plastic pollution. Performance of the DNN-based model is controlled by the confusion matrix, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and justified by the k-nearest neighbours, decision tree, random forests, support vector machines, Gaussian naïve Bayes, logistic regression, and multilayer perceptron methods. According to the comparative modelling results, the DNN-based model was found to predict more accurately than other methods and have a significant predominance over others with a lower errors rate (MSE = 0.024, RMSE = 0.027, MAPE = 0.025). The ROC curve analysis results (overall accuracy) indicate the DNN model (AUC = 0.929) had the highest score among others.