Spring and summer potential flood risk in Northeast China
Wei Qi, Lian Feng, Hong Yang, Junguo Liu
Abstract
Northeast China Northeast China is an important region for industry and agriculture in China. In this region, investigations are lacking on the spatial distribution of snow melt contributions to the spring maximum runoff/discharge, and no studies have compared the spring and summer potential flood risks. Here, for the first time in Northeast China, we investigated the spatial distribution of snow melt contributions to spring maximum runoff/discharge and compared the spring and summer potential flood risks in terms of their spatial distributions, crop production and economic exposures. We find that snow contributes approximately three-fourths of spring maximum floods from 1982 to 2011. On average, potential economic exposures to the summer and spring floods represent 3.9% and 0.4% of total GDP, respectively. Potentially exposed production of maize, rice and soybean to summer floods accounts for approximately 2.8% of the total, and potentially exposed wheat production to the spring floods accounts for 0.3% of the total. GDP growth amplifies increasing trends of potential economic exposure, while changes in potential crop production exposure are dominated by flood variations. This study is unique in that snow melt contributions to the spring maximum floods are quantified and that potential GDP and crop production exposure risks to spring and summer floods are quantified and compared for the first time in Northeast China.