Tumor Mutational Burden as a Predictor of First-Line Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Versus Carboplatin Benefit in Cisplatin-Unfit Patients With Urothelial Carcinoma
Ryon P. Graf, Virginia Fisher, Richard S.P. Huang, Omar Hamdani, Ole Gjoerup, Jennifer J. Stanke, James Creeden, Mia Levy, Geoffrey R. Oxnard, Shilpa Gupta
Abstract
PURPOSE: In real-world settings, patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) are often more frail than clinical trials, underscoring an unmet need to identify patients who might be spared first-line chemotherapy. We sought to determine whether tumor mutational burden (TMB) identifies patients with comparable or superior clinical benefit of first-line single-agent immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICPI) in real-world patients deemed cisplatin-unfit. METHODS: Patients with mUC treated in first-line advanced setting (N = 401) received ICPI (n = 245) or carboplatin regiment without ICPI (n = 156) at physician's discretion in standard-of-care settings across approximately 280 US academic or community-based cancer clinics between March 2014 and July 2021. Deidentified data were captured into a real-world clinicogenomic database. All patients underwent testing using Foundation Medicine assays. Progression-free survival (PFS), time to next treatment (TTNT), and overall survival (OS) comparing ICPI versus chemotherapy were adjusted for known treatment assignment imbalances using propensity scores. RESULTS: TMB ≥ 10 was detected in 122 of 401 (30.4%) patients. Among patients receiving ICPI, those with TMB ≥ 10 had more favorable PFS (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.85), TTNT (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.83), and OS (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.68). Comparing ICPI versus carboplatin, adjusting for imbalances, patients with TMB ≥ 10 had more favorable PFS (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.82), TTNT (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.91), and OS (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.08) on ICPI versus chemotherapy, but not TMB < 10. Comparisons unadjusted for imbalances had similar associations. CONCLUSIONS: In real-world settings, mUC patients with TMB ≥ 10 have more favorable outcomes on first-line single-agent ICPI than carboplatin, adding clinical validity to TMB assessed by an existing US Food and Drug Administration-approved platform.