Development versus Adaptation? Facing Climate Change in Ca Mau, Vietnam
Bruno Di Gíusto, Thi Minh Nghi Le, Thanh Thao My Nguyen, Thi Thuy Hanh Nguyen, Nguyen Uyen My Vu, Joseph P. Lavallee
Abstract
Climate change poses a dire threat to the Mekong River Delta, an important supplier of shrimp and rice to global markets. The southernmost province, Ca Mau, is threatened by sea level rise and land subsidence. Little is known of the expected combined impact of these processes, or of the perceptions of farmers towards these threats. This study first projected the combined effects using the most accurate extant elevation data. Next, to assess perceptions, we interviewed 53 farmers from six communes within the province. We found that 43% of the province could be at risk of submersion by 2030, and 75% by 2050. The interviews revealed that the farmers were largely unaware of the imminence of submersion and did not fully comprehend the nature and magnitude of the underlying processes. Constrained by the requirements of their developmental trajectory, they were focused on short term threats to their livelihood (weather, salinization, pollution). Consequently, far from adapting to the larger threats, they are engaged in practices, such as groundwater extraction for aquaculture, that are hastening the demise of the region. Their plight offers warnings to similar regions around the world. We hope that our findings can inform the development of future outreach programs.