Climate change: challenges and limitations in agriculture
Anna J. Keutgen
Abstract
Abstract Climate has always been changing, but the current changes and climate models indicate a significant and rapid increase of temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, shifts in precipitation patterns and consequently a higher frequency, duration and intensity of climate extremes (frost, heat and drought periods, heavy precipitation, hail, storms, floods, storm surges, etc.). Thus, agriculture on the whole but also agro-ecosystems are very susceptible and highly vulnerable to the effects of these changes. The scenarios for climate development in Austria also follow the global trends. Increasing temperatures in combination with more frequent heat waves, water shortage and drought events will be the most serious constraints on growth and quality of many crop plants. However, such changes do not result only in the negative effects. Higher average temperatures accelerate the development of many plants. The increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere to a certain extent may stimulate plant growth (fertilization effect) combined with an increased water use efficiency. The cultivation period is longer and the winters milder and wetter, which may allow new cultivation time and forms as well as new species. For agriculture, several adaptive strategies are possible, which include but are not limited to plant breeding, choice of plant species and variety as well as soil and cultivation management. However, the extent to which negative and positive climate impacts will strongly influence the agriculture in the given area is still largely unknown, but will be of crucial importance for the prediction of future crop yields.