The Role of Climate During the COVID-19 epidemic in New South Wales, Australia
Michael P. Ward, Shuang Xiao, Zhijie Zhang
Abstract
Previous research has identified a relationship between climate and occurrence of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV cases, information that can be used to reduce the risk of infection. Using COVID-19 notification and postcode data from New South Wales, Australia during the exponential phase of the epidemic in 2020, we used time-series analysis to investigate the relationship between 749 cases of locally-acquired COVID-19 and daily rainfall, 9am and 3pm temperature, and 9am and 3pm relative humidity. Lower 9am relative humidity (but not rainfall or temperature) was associated with increased case occurrence; a reduction in relative humidity of 1% was predicted to be associated with an increase of COVID-19 cases by 6.11%. During periods of low relative humidity, the public health system should anticipate an increased number of COVID-19 cases.