Modelling stochastic behaviour in simulation digital twins through neural nets
Sean Reed, Magnus Löfstrand, John Andrews
Abstract
In discrete event simulation (DES) models, stochastic behaviour is modelled by sampling random variates from probability distributions to determine event outcomes. However, the distribution of outcomes for an event from a real system is often dynamic and dependent on the current system state. This paper proposes the use of artificial neural networks (ANN) in DES models to determine the current distribution of each event outcome, conditional on the current model state or input data, from which random variates can then be sampled. This enables more realistic and accurate modelling of stochastic behaviour. An application is in digital twin models that aim to closely mimic a real system by learning from its past behaviour and utilising current data to predict its future. The benefits of the approach introduced in this paper are demonstrated through a realistic DES model of load-haul-dump vehicle operations in a production area of a sublevel caving mine.