The impact of changing climate on the spread of the widely expanding species Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Slovakia

Abstract

Abstract The invasion of common ragweed in Slovakia was analysed based on 1635 collected records. More than 70 years have passed since the first record was sampled in 1949. Since then, it has spread in two waves, first in the lowlands, next to farmland and human settlements, and later in the mountains, on the roadsides. In the present, it is probably expanded in half of the territory of Slovakia. It is changing habitat preferences and adapting to new environments. Using eleven environmental and geographical variables, the species distribution modelling was performed to obtain probability of occurrence in high resolution (30 s) in Slovakia. Four predictions were calculated based on two models. The first prediction was based on the first model trained on ragweed records before the start of the second expansion wave in 2000. The second prediction is based on the first model and predicts the present distribution according to current climatic conditions, which have changed in twenty years. The third prediction was based on the second model, trained on all 1635 collected records from 1949 to 2022. The fourth prediction based on the second model shows the potential distribution in 2040–2061. Comparing the predictions, the climatic changes explain current expansion of common ragweed in mountains since the air temperature is the main factor shaping distribution of common ragweed in Slovakia.

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