The 2019 Flooding of Venice and Its Implications for Future Predictions
Luigi Cavaleri, Marco Bajo, Francesco Barbariol, Mauro Bastianini, Alvise Benetazzo, Luciana Bertotti, Jacopo Chiggiato, Christian Ferrarin, Fabio Trincardi, Georg Umgiesser
Abstract
Venice has long suffered the effects of rising sea levels. The last two stormy seasons brought a series of events that peaked in the great flood of November 2019. Here, we analyze that November storm, showing (1) how different factors, by themselves unexceptional, gave rise to one of the worst floods in Venice's history, and (2) that the characteristics of this event made the storm difficult to forecast accurately. We stress the need to take into account probabilistic information available from ensemble forecasts, and discuss this within the framework of Venice's present situation. At the same time, using the 2019 Venice flooding as an example that may apply to many similar coastal locations elsewhere, we look at the future, pointing out that flooding problems can only worsen in a rapidly changing natural world.