Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt
Othman A. M. Omar, Reda A. Elbarkouky, Hamdy M. Ahmed
Abstract
In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, the numerical solutions for the considered models are obtained. The considered models are applied to the case study of Egypt to forecast COVID-19 behavior for the second virus wave which is assumed to be started on 15 November 2020. Finally, comparisons between actual and predicted daily infections are presented.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Stochastic modellingApplied mathematicsEuler's formulaMathematicsEpidemic model2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Statistical physicsPhysicsMathematical analysisStatisticsVirologyMedicinePopulationInfectious disease (medical specialty)PathologyEnvironmental healthOutbreakDiseaseCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesFractional Differential Equations SolutionsCOVID-19 Pandemic Impacts