A Caputo power law model predicting the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan
Muhammad Arfan, Kamal Shah, Thabet Abdeljawad, Nabil Mlaiki, Aman Ullah
Abstract
This work is devoted to establish a modified population model of susceptible and infected (SI) compartments to predict the spread of the infectious disease COVID-19 in Pakistan. We have formulated the model and derived its boundedness and feasibility. By using next generation matrices method we have derived some results for the global and local stability of different kinds of equilibrium points. Also, by using fixed point approach some results of existence of at least one solution are studied. Furthermore, the numerical simulations for various values of isolation parameters corresponding to different fractional order are investigated by using modified Euler’s method.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)OutbreakMathematicsApplied mathematicsStability (learning theory)Epidemic modelPopulationPower law2019-20 coronavirus outbreakEuler's formulaWork (physics)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Equilibrium pointInfectious disease (medical specialty)Computer scienceStatisticsMathematical analysisEngineeringDiseaseVirologyDifferential equationBiologyDemographyMedicinePathologyMachine learningSociologyMechanical engineeringFractional Differential Equations SolutionsMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsCOVID-19 epidemiological studies