A Novel Parametric Model for the Prediction and Analysis of the COVID-19 Casualties
Önder Tutsoy, Şule Çolak, Adem Polat, Kemal Balıkçı
Abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has affected billions of people, where millions of them have been infected and thousands of them have lost their lives. In addition, to constraint the spread of the virus, economies have been shut down, curfews and restrictions have interrupted the social lives. Currently, the key question in minds is the future impacts of the virus on the people. It is a fact that the parametric modelling and analyses of the pandemic viruses are able to provide crucial information about the character and also future behaviour of the viruses. This paper initially reviews and analyses the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, which is extensively considered for the estimation of the COVID-19 casualties. Then, this paper introduces a novel comprehensive higher-order, multi-dimensional, strongly coupled, and parametric Suspicious-Infected-Death (SpID) model. The mathematical analysis results performed by using the casualties in Turkey show that the COVID-19 dynamics are inside the slightly oscillatory, stable (bounded) region, although some of the dynamics are close to the instability region (unbounded). However, analysis with the data just after lifting the restrictions reveals that the dynamics of the COVID-19 are moderately unstable, which would blow up if no actions are taken. The developed model estimates that the number of the infected and death individuals will converge zero around 300 days whereas the number of the suspicious individuals will require about a thousand days to be minimized under the current conditions. Even though the developed model is used to estimate the casualties in Turkey, it can be easily trained with the data from the other countries and used for the estimation of the corresponding COVID-19 casualties.