Effectiveness assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions: lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic
Adrian Lison, Nicolas Banholzer, Mrinank Sharma, Sören Mindermann, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Swapnil Mishra, Tanja Stadler, Samir Bhatt, Neil M. Ferguson, Jan Brauner, Werner Vach
Abstract
Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, during the COVID-19 pandemic has been assessed in many studies. Such assessments can inform public health policies and contribute to evidence-based choices of NPIs during subsequent waves or future epidemics. However, methodological issues and no standardised assessment practices have restricted the practical value of the existing evidence. Here, we present and discuss lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and make recommendations for standardising and improving assessment, data collection, and modelling. These recommendations could contribute to reliable and policy-relevant assessments of the effectiveness of NPIs during future epidemics.