Performance Measures for Validation of Oil Spill Dispersion Models Based on Satellite and Coastal Data
C. Dearden, Tim Culmer, Richard Brooke
Abstract
This article presents a set of performance metrics, whose purpose is to provide a quantitative measure of the ability of oil spill dispersion models to simulate real-world oil spills. The metrics are described in detail and are applied to the output from an existing oil spill model for two specific case studies. The metrics in question make use of both satellite imagery and coastal impact reports as the basis of the validation. Specifically, we recommend the 2-D measure of effectiveness as a means of quantifying model performance based on the extent of overlap between the observations and the model output. Additionally, we show that it is advantageous to supplement the 2-D measure of effectiveness with a newly proposed set of skill scores, based on the geometric area and centroid of a given oil spill. We also demonstrate how the metrics can be used to assess the sensitivity of a model to its input parameters and the impact this has on the accuracy of the resultant forecast. Finally, we offer a real-world interpretation for each metric introduced and suggest ways that they can be used to assist in cleanup operations of actual oil spills.