Understanding hazards: Probabilistic cyclone modelling for disaster risk to the Eastern Coast in Bangladesh
Bapon Fakhruddin, Karunakar Kintada, Quamrul Hassan
Abstract
Cyclones and their associated wind and water hazards result in the largest number of fatalities. Coastal inundations due to cyclonic storm surges are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people in low-lying, highly populated coastal areas. Understanding hazards and the probability and intensity of of their occurrence are essential for determining the risk to life and infrastructure, as it allows the relevant agencies to plan for and respond to disasters. This paper developes a synthetic cyclone modelling (Category 4) to understand probable maximum impacts of a tropical cyclone and its cascading and compounding hazards in the Cox's Bazar area in Bangladesh. These models are used to develop contingency plans and strategies for disaster response. The probabilistic cyclone hazard modelling provides scenarios based hazards information that could benefit humanitarian agencies and future infrastructure risk assessments.