Combination of AKT1 and CDH1 mutations predicts primary resistance to immunotherapy in dMMR/MSI-H gastrointestinal cancer
Zhenghang Wang, Qi Zhang, Changsong Qi, Yuezong Bai, Feilong Zhao, Hui Chen, Zhongwu Li, Xicheng Wang, Mifen Chen, Jifang Gong, Zhi Peng, Xiaotian Zhang, Jinping Cai, Shiqing Chen, Xiaochen Zhao, Lin Shen, Jian Li
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) cancer is the second most common cancer type with mismatch repair-deficient (dMMR)/microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) phenotype that is expected to respond to immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). However, approximately half of the patients with dMMR/MSI-H GI cancer derive no benefit from ICIs. We sought to identify the predictors of primary resistance to ICIs in dMMR/MSI-H GI cancer. METHODS: Three independent cohorts were included: (1) the discovery cohort (65 patients with dMMR/MSI-H GI cancer) with ICI efficacy data and pre-ICIs tissue samples for genomic profile and tumor immune infiltration; (2) the validation cohort (22 patients with dMMR/MSI-H GI cancer) with ICI efficacy data and pre-ICIs plasma samples for genomic profile; and (3) the TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) cohort not receiving ICIs (152 patients with MSI-H GI cancer) with genomic profile and survival data. RESULTS: AKT1 and CDH1 mutations were identified as independent predictors of poor progression-free survival (PFS) and primary resistance to ICIs in dMMR/MSI-H GI cancer. We combined these two genes as an immuno-oncology therapy predictor (IOpred), which could recognize 52.4% (11/21) of dMMR/MSI-H patients with primary resistance to ICIs with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 91.7% (11/12). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated IOpred with a good performance in predicting primary resistance (area under the curve 0.751). Patients with IOpred-Mut (mutant AKT1 or CDH1) GI cancer had significantly shorter PFS (HR=8.36, p<0.001) and overall survival (OS, HR=5.17, p<0.001) than IOpred-WT (wild-type for both AKT1 and CDH1) cases upon ICI treatment. The validation cohort also confirmed the correlation between IOpred-mutation and poorer prognosis (PFS, HR=4.68, p=0.004; OS, HR=15.98, p<0.001) in dMMR/MSI-H patients after ICIs. The PPV of IOpred in identifying primary resistance to ICIs was 80% (4/5) in the validation cohort. Additionally, IOpred-WT patients could be further stratified by tumor mutational burden (TMB), wherein TMB-low patients (TMB ≤26.19 mutations per megabase (Mb)) had a significantly higher primary resistance rate to ICIs (34.8% vs 6.7%, p=0.014) and poorer PFS (HR=3.46, p=0.008) and OS (HR=4.42, p=0.047) than TMB-high patients (TMB >26.19 mutations/Mb). CONCLUSIONS: IOpred was identified as a powerful predictor of primary resistance to ICIs in dMMR/MSI-H GI cancer, which might serve as a promising biomarker to help guide immunotherapy decision-making.