Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Canary Islands
Judit Carrillo, Albano González, Juan C. Pérez, Francisco J. Expósito, Juan P. Díaz
Abstract
Abstract The Canary Islands are a leading tourist destination. Their strong economic dependence on this sector makes them vulnerable to climate change. The steep orography of the islands causes impact of climate change and their potential influence on tourism to be spatially heterogenous. To account for this variability, regional climate simulations were computed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical weather prediction model driven by the results of three CMIP5 global climate models as boundary conditions, using two different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the projections. The simulations were performed at a spatial resolution of 3 km for three 30-year periods, recent past (1980–2009), mid-century (2030–2059), and end-century (2070–2099). For two widely used indices of tourist attractiveness (the Tourism Climate Index TCI and the Holiday Climate Index HCI), the coastal region of most islands currently has between 20 and 30 “excellent” and “ideal” days per month for tourism, with a decrease at higher elevations. Future leisure conditions are expected to improve at higher locations and during the autumn, winter and spring. In the RCP8.5 scenario, “excellent” days are projected to increase in winter at the end of the century. Nevertheless, in the southern areas, where most of the hotel infrastructure is located, the indices indicate significantly worsened conditions in summer, with only a few “excellent” days expected in some locations. Thermal comfort was identified as the most important factor determining the expected changes.