Wind Power Curve Modeling With Hybrid Copula and Grey Wolf Optimization
Danxiang Wei, Jianzhou Wang, Zhiwu Li, Rui Wang
Abstract
Wind power curve modeling has important applications in many fields, such as wind turbine condition monitoring and wind power forecasting. There are various studies on wind power curve construction though, the relation between wind speed and errors is not taken into account when constructing wind power curves. To fill this gap, a hybrid copula-based wind power curve model (HCCM) is proposed in this paper. The independent distribution of wind speed is modeled by a Weibull distribution, and the independent distribution of errors is modeled by a mixture of asymmetric gaussian models. Then a hybrid copula model, including four copula functions, is designed to construct the joint distribution. Finally, a grey wolf optimization algorithm is applied to optimize the regression parameters of wind power curves by taking the log-likelihood function of the joint distribution as the fitness function. The proposed model is compared with ten benchmark models on four wind farms and two wind turbines. Experiments show that in terms of RMSE the HCCM achieves 99.3131%, 99.1197%, 99.1715% and 98.9339% on four wind farms, respectively, and around 80% improvement in RMSE on two wind turbines.