SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics in non-human primates
António Gonçalves, Pauline Maisonnasse, Flora Donati, Mélanie Albert, Sylvie Behillil, Vanessa Contreras, Thibaut Naninck, Romain Marlin, Caroline Solas, Andrés Pizzorno, Julien Lemaître, Nidhal Kahlaoui, Olivier Terrier, Raphaël Ho Tsong Fang, Vincent Enouf, Nathalie Dereuddre‐Bosquet, Angela Brisebarre, Franck Touret, Catherine Chapon, Bruno Hoen, Bruno Lina, Manuel Rosa‐Calatrava, Xavier de Lamballerie, France Mentré, Roger Le Grand, Sylvie van der Werf, Jérémie Guedj
Abstract
Non-human primates infected with SARS-CoV-2 exhibit mild clinical signs. Here we used a mathematical model to characterize in detail the viral dynamics in 31 cynomolgus macaques for which nasopharyngeal and tracheal viral load were frequently assessed. We identified that infected cells had a large burst size (>104 virus) and a within-host reproductive basic number of approximately 6 and 4 in nasopharyngeal and tracheal compartment, respectively. After peak viral load, infected cells were rapidly lost with a half-life of 9 hours, with no significant association between cytokine elevation and clearance, leading to a median time to viral clearance of 10 days, consistent with observations in mild human infections. Given these parameter estimates, we predict that a prophylactic treatment blocking 90% of viral production or viral infection could prevent viral growth. In conclusion, our results provide estimates of SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetic parameters in an experimental model of mild infection and they provide means to assess the efficacy of future antiviral treatments.