COVID-19’s Impact on International Trade
Célestin Coquidé, José Lages, Leonardo Ermann, Dima L. Shepelyansky
Abstract
We analyze how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the trade of products between countries. With this aim, using the United Nations Comtrade database, we perform a Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct World Trade Network (WTN) for the years 2018-2020, comprising the emergence of the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The applied algorithms-PageRank, CheiRank and the reduced Google matrix-take into account the multiplicity of the WTN links, providing new insights into international trade compared to the usual import-export analysis. These complex networks analysis algorithms establish new rankings and trade balances of countries and products considering all countries on equal grounds, independent of their wealth, and every product on the basis of its relative exchanged volumes. In comparison with the pre-COVID-19 period, significant changes in these metrics occurred for the year 2020, highlighting a major rewiring of the international trade flows induced by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We define a new PageRank-CheiRank product trade balance, either export or import-oriented, which is significantly perturbed by the pandemic.