Change in Extreme Precipitation by Watersheds of South Korea Under Future Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) Scenarios
Seon Tae Kim, Woo‐Seop Lee, Il‐Won Jung, Jeong-Min Han, Young‐Hwa Byun, Jin‐Uk Kim
Abstract
For the assessment of the future flood risk of 26 watersheds in South Korea, we analyze the change in extreme precipitation with a 100-year return period under global warming. We use downscaled high-resolution observation and bias-corrected future climate change scenario data from the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences for this purpose. In the high-CO₂ emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the average rates of change in 100-year return period precipitation at 26 watersheds is projected to increase about 29%, 46%, and 53% in the early (2021 ~ 2040), mid (2041 ~ 2060), and late (2081 ~ 2100) 21st century, respectively, relative to the present climate. The number of watersheds with a 100-year return period precipitation increase of 50% or more compared to the present climate is predicted to increase significantly in the late 21st century. On the other hand, in the low-CO₂ emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), after the mid-21st century, the increase in 100-year return period precipitation is much less than that of the high-CO₂ emission scenario since the rate of change is projected to increase about 31%, 31%, and 29% in the early, mid, and late periods, respectively. Furthermore, most watersheds show a 100-year return period precipitation increase of 50% or less. These results imply that the possibility of flooding by extreme precipitation can be reduced through achievement of a carbon-neutral policy.