Time series forecasting of electricity consumption using hybrid model of recurrent neural networks and genetic algorithms
Ali Hussein, Mohammed Awad
Abstract
The forceful energy efficiency to manage the demand is essential to meet development goals. Palestine has suffered from an electricity deficit, whereas the city of Tulkarm suffers from a chronic one. The dataset was collected from Tulkarm city in Palestine; this city is considered one of the cities that suffers the most from frequent power outages. It's difficult to determine the most powerful Artificial intelligence (AI) approaches that can accurately forecast electricity consumption. This paper presents a hybrid model that combines Recurrence Neural Networks (RNNs) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) [RNN-GAs] to forecast electricity consumption and optimize demand. In the proposed model the K-means clustering technique produces specific initial population seeding and optimization crossover operators to enhance the efficiency and find the optimal solution. The results showed that the proposed Nonlinear Autoregressive with External (Exogenous) (NARX) (NARX-GAs) with the K-means clustering technique outperforms the hybrid model NARX-GAs. The NARX-GAs-K Mean Clustering recorded an RMSE value of 0.08759, which performs a good balance with the lowest RMSE, especially in long-term forecasting, and also outperforms the other hybrid forecasting models that depend on RNN-GAs. Finally, the forecasting results of the hybrid NARX-GAs-K Mean Clustering can predict accurately the energy consumption in a city, which leads to the use of the model in similar cities to forecast and manage the demand for electricity consumption.