Development and Validation of a Nomogram to Preoperatively Estimate Post-hepatectomy Liver Dysfunction Risk and Long-term Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Yan-Yan Wang, Bang-De Xiang, Liang Ma, Jian-Hong Zhong, Jia-Zhou Ye, Kun Wang, Bao-Cai Xing, Le-Qun Li
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To develop a nomogram to estimate the risk of SPLD (International Study Group of Liver Surgery definition grade B or C) and long-term survival in patients with HCC before hepatectomy. BACKGROUND: SPLD is the leading cause of post-hepatectomy mortality. The decision to refer an HCC patient for hepatectomy is mainly based on the survival benefit and SPLD risk. Prediction of SPLD risk before hepatectomy is of great significance. METHODS: A total of 2071 consecutive patients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC were recruited and randomly divided into the development cohort (n = 1036) and internal validation cohort (n = 1035). Five hundred ninety patients from another center were enrolled as the external validation cohort. A nomogram was developed based on independent preoperative predictors of SPLD determined in multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The SPLD incidences in the development, internal, and external validation cohorts were 10.1%, 9.5%, and 8.6%, respectively. Multivariable analysis identified total bilirubin, albumin, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, prothrombin time, clinically significant portal hypertension, and major resection as independent predictors for SPLD. Incorporating these variables, the nomogram showed good concordance statistics of 0.883, 0.851, and 0.856, respectively in predicting SPLD in the 3 cohorts. Its predictive performance in SPLD, 90-day mortality, and overall survival (OS) outperformed Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease, albumin-bilirubin, and European Association for the Study of the Liver recommended algorithm. With a nomogram score of 137, patients were stratified into low and high risk of SPLD. High-risk patients also had decreased OS. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram showed good performance in predicting both SPLD and OS. It could help surgeons select suitable HCC patients for hepatectomy.