Global burden of female breast cancer: new estimates in 2022, temporal trend and future projections up to 2050 based on the latest release from GLOBOCAN
Yunmeng Zhang, Yuting Ji, Siwen Liu, Jingjing Li, Jie Wu, Qianyun Jin, Xiaomin Liu, Hongyuan Duan, Zhuowei Feng, Liu Ya, Yacong Zhang, Zhangyan Lyu, Fangfang Song, Fengju Song, Lei Yang, Zhihong Liu, Yubei Huang
Abstract
Background: Breast cancer (BC) incidence and mortality vary significantly across countries, highlighting the need to update the global burden of female BC, including current trends and future projections. Methods: Data were sourced from GLOBOCAN 2022, including estimated new cases and deaths from BC across 21 United Nation (UN) regions and 185 countries, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC), and demographic projections through 2050. The region-specific and country-specific BC burden for women of all ages and for young women (< 40 years old) was reorganized and re-plotted to highlight subgroup differences. Linear regression was used to explore the link between ASIR/ASMR and the human development index (HDI). Transitioning countries referred to those with low or medium HDI, while transitioned countries were those with high or very high HDI. Results: < 0.05). Overall BC showed an increasing trend in ASIR during 2003-2015 (EAPC: 0.92 %) and a decreasing trend in ASMR during 2006-2016 (EAPC:-1.06 %). Early-onset BC showed a more significant rise in ASIR (EAPCs: 1.4 %) and a slight increase in ASMR (EAPCs: 0.16 %). If national rates remain stable, BC cases and deaths will increase by 54.7 % and 70.9 %, respectively, by 2050. Notably, increased early-onset BC cases are only observed in transitioning countries, while decreased cases are seen in transitioned countries. Conclusions: Breast cancer remains the leading cancer burden in women, particularly in transitioning countries. Addressing this growing burden requires urgent integration of primary prevention, early detection and high-quality treatment through multi-sectoral collaboration.