Optimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland
Gavin M. Abernethy, David H. Glass
Abstract
An age-structured SEIR model simulates the propagation of COVID-19 in the population of Northern Ireland. It is used to identify optimal timings of short-term lockdowns that enable long-term pandemic exit strategies by clearing the threshold for herd immunity or achieving time for vaccine development with minimal excess deaths.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Herd immunityPandemic2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)PopulationEpidemic modelTerm (time)GeographyBiologyVirologyMedicineOutbreakEnvironmental healthInfectious disease (medical specialty)PhysicsDiseaseQuantum mechanicsPathologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic Impactsdemographic modeling and climate adaptation