Explaining Global Trends in Cattle Population Changes between 1961 and 2020 Directly Affecting Methane Emissions

Abstract

Methane (CH4) emissions from agricultural sources contribute significantly to the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which cause climate change. According to the guidelines of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for calculating greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture is responsible for approximately 10% of total CH4 emissions from anthropogenic sources. CH4 is primarily emitted from livestock farming, particularly from cattle production during enteric fermentation and from manure. This article describes the results of multivariate statistical analyses carried out on data collected from 1961 to 2020 for thirty countries with the largest cattle populations. The study evaluated the trends in temporal changes in cattle populations and identified groups of countries with similar patterns during the study period. The global cattle population was highly correlated with CH4 emissions from the enteric fermentation of cattle and their manure. The countries experiencing the largest increase in cattle population were primarily developing countries located in South America, Africa and Southeastern Asia. The cattle population in these countries showed a strong correlation with the human population. On the other hand, the countries where the cattle population remained stable during the study period were mainly highly developed countries. The correlations between most of the examined variables associated with cattle production and the cattle population in these countries were inconsistent and relatively weak. In the near future, further increase in the cattle population and the associated CH4 emissions are expected, mainly in developing countries with high population growth.

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