Spatiotemporal carbon footprints of electricity production and consumption in China
Ziyi Li, Junjie Li, Zimeng Cao, Kexin Hu, Ruoxi Ao, Junyan Li, Jingcheng Li, Xiaofan Wang, Sheng Zhang, Yulong Yan, Menggang Li, Lin Peng, Kechang Xie, Menggang Li, Lin Peng, Kechang Xie
Abstract
Spatiotemporally explicit carbon footprint (CF) data are imperative for regionally differentiated decarbonization in China's electricity sector and its consumers. However, there is a lack of consistent and accurate multi-year province-level electricity CF data in China due to the largely overlooked impact of spatiotemporally varying electricity generation efficiencies. Here, we develop an efficiency-corrected model to estimate source-specific electricity production CF curves based on province-level efficiency data from 2010 to 2023. Using the node-flow model, these curves are combined with provincial dynamic electricity structure and transmission data to estimate the spatiotemporal CFs of electricity production and consumption. We reveal the highly inconsistent spatiotemporal heterogeneity of source-specific electricity production CFs, with electricity production and consumption in most provinces decreasing by over 20%. Efficiency improvements contribute approximately 30% of CF mitigations in electricity production, while the potential for CF mitigations in electricity consumption through electricity transmission expansion has not been well tapped.