New insight in massive cerebral infarction predictions after anterior circulation occlusion
Jingshu Chen, Mingyu Zou, Nan Zhang, Shouliang Qi, Benqiang Yang, Libo Zhang, Lin Shi, Yang Duan
Abstract
To predict massive cerebral infarction (MCI) occurrence after anterior circulation occlusion (ACO) by cASPECTS-CTA-CS (combined ASPECTS and CTA-CS). Of 185 cerebral infarction patients with the ACO, their collateral circulation scores from CT angiography (CTA) images in two groups (MCI and non-MCI) were evaluated using Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) and CT angiography collateral score (CTA-CS) approaches. The cASPECTS-CTA-CS was validated internally using the bootstrap sampling method with 1000 bootstrap repetitions and compared to CTA-CS. Receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), clinical impact curve (CIC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) strategies were used to assess the clinical practicality and predictability of both approaches (cASPECTS-CTA-CS and CTA-CS). Using net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analyses, discrimination levels of the cASPECTS-CTA-CS were compared with CTA-CS. Classification and regression tree (CART) analyses was conducted to identify the best predictive values and identify subgroup of MCI. The discrimination ability of collateral circulation evaluation score using the cASPECTS-CTA-CS [AUC: 0.918, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.869-0.967, P < 0.01; NRI: 0.200, 95% CI: -0.104 to 0.505, P = 0.197; and IDI: 0.107, 95% CI: 0.035-0.178, P = 0.004] was better than CTA-CS alone (AUC: 0.885, 95% CI: 0.833-0.937, P < 0.01). DCA indicated the net benefits of the cASPECTS-CTA-CS approach was higher than CTA-CS alone when the threshold probability range over 20%. CIC analyses showed that the number of high risks and true positives were in agreement when the threshold probability > 80%. Less than 23 of cASPECTS-CTA-CS by CART was important factor in determining MCI occurrence, and ASPECTS < 7 was followed factor. The cASPECTS-CTA-CS approach cumulatively predicted MCI after ACO.