Improving evacuation policies through agent-based modeling and stakeholder engagement in hazard-prone areas
Hossein Moradi, Rouba Iskandar, Sebastián Rodríguez, Dhirendra Singh, Julie Dugdale, Dimitrios Tzempelikos, Athanasios Sfetsos, Evangelia Bakogianni, Evrydiki Pavlidi, Josué Díaz, Margarita Ribas, Alexandre Moragues, Joan Estrany
Abstract
This paper introduces C-SAFE , a comprehensive framework for developing emergency evacuation simulations to enhance pre-disaster preparedness. C-SAFE combines a simulation framework encompassing five key dimensions: Infrastructure, Population Demographics, Evacuation Policy, Hazard Model, and Human Behavior Model. This allows for the systematic creation of what-if scenarios to test the effectiveness of evacuation policies under various conditions. Additionally, the framework integrates a co-creation process involving local stakeholders, ensuring the scenarios are tailored to specific contexts. This complementary operation provides an iterative mechanism, addressing both the granularity required for simulation resolution and the detail needed for practical and context-sensitive simulation scenario development. C-SAFE is tested in Greece focusing on earthquake hazards, producing metrics such as time analysis, heatmaps of population dynamics, and insights into preferred safe locations. The validation process in this case study demonstrates (1) an improved understanding of evacuation concerns, (2) a clear process for defining evacuation scenarios, and (3) enhanced communication between stakeholders through simulations. Furthermore, the framework is also applied in Spain, focusing on flash flood hazards, where results show, for example, that the early warning system could reduce the number of stranded individuals by 37 %, confirming the framework's value for optimizing evacuation policies according to practitioners. • C-SAFE models evacuations by integrating ABM, HBM, and five key dimensions. •C-SAFE co-creates simulations with stakeholders for real-world, tailored solutions. • Tested in Greece and Spain, C-SAFE improves evacuation for earthquakes and floods. • C-SAFE shows early warnings reduce stranded individuals by 37 % in flash floods.