Assessing a decision-support tool to estimate the cooling potential and economic savings from urban vegetation in Singapore
Emma E. Ramsay, Yuan Wang, Mahyar Masoudi, Min Wei CHAI, Tiangang Yin, Perrine Hamel
Abstract
• The InVEST Urban Cooling model accurately estimated urban temperatures in a tropical city. • Model parameters were calibrated using observed temperature data. • Urban cooling from vegetation has economic benefits through reduced energy use. • We estimated $47.14 million SGD annual savings in public residential buildings. • With minimal data requirements, the model can be applied to other tropical cities. To mitigate the growing threat of urban heat, cities are implementing greening strategies such as tree planting or the development of parks. Effectively integrating these solutions into planning requires quantitative information on the cooling effect of urban vegetation. Here we examined the performance of an open-source decision-support tool, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Urban Cooling model, to estimate the cooling effect and economic benefits from urban vegetation in a tropical city context, using Singapore as an exemplar case study. Using observed temperature data, we calibrated the model to estimate the spatial distribution of annual average day- and night-time temperature at 10 m spatial resolution and validated the results using leave-one-out cross validation. The calibrated models performed well to estimate annual average daily mean and maximum (day), and minimum (night) temperatures (R 2 of 0.78, 0.65, and 0.52, respectively). We estimated that urban cooling in Singapore provides economic savings of $47.14 million SGD annually from reduced energy consumption in public residential buildings, based on the relationship between energy consumption and mean temperature. Our results give confidence in the model as a decision-support tool to estimate urban heat island effects and evaluate heat mitigation strategies in tropical cities.