The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts
Ju‐Hye Kim, Pedro A. Jiménez, Manajit Sengupta, Jaemo Yang, Jimy Dudhia, Stefano Alessandrini, Yu Xie
Abstract
In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.
Topics & Concepts
Solar irradianceProbabilistic logicWeather Research and Forecasting ModelCalibrationProbabilistic forecastingEnsemble forecastingMeteorologyComputer scienceEnvironmental scienceIrradianceConsistency (knowledge bases)Forecast verificationPhotovoltaic systemRemote sensingStatisticsForecast skillMachine learningMathematicsArtificial intelligenceEngineeringGeographyPhysicsElectrical engineeringQuantum mechanicsSolar Radiation and PhotovoltaicsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsClimate variability and models