Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk
Jana Sillmann, Theodore G. Shepherd, Bart van den Hurk, Wilco Hazeleger, Olivia Martius, Julia Slingo, Jakob Zscheischler
Abstract
Abstract The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model‐based probabilistic climate change projections. Event‐based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress‐testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event‐based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.