TRI-SCORE: a new risk score for in-hospital mortality prediction after isolated tricuspid valve surgery
Julien Dreyfus, Étienne Audureau, Yohann Bohbot, Augustin Coisne, Yoan Lavie‐Badie, Maxime Bouchery, Michele Flagiello, Baptiste Bazire, Florian Eggenspieler, F Viau, Elisabeth Riant, Yannick Mbaki, Damien Eyharts, Thomas Sénage, Thomas Modine, Martin Nicol, Fabien Doguet, Virginia Nguyen, Thierry Le Tourneau, Christophe Tribouilloy, Erwan Donal, Jacques Tomasi, Gilbert Habib, Christine Selton‐Suty, Richard Raffoul, Bernard Iung, Jean‐François Obadia, David Messika–Zeitoun
Abstract
AIMS: Isolated tricuspid valve surgery (ITVS) is considered to be a high-risk procedure, but in-hospital mortality is markedly variable. This study sought to develop a dedicated risk score model to predict the outcome of patients after ITVS for severe tricuspid regurgitation (TR). METHODS AND RESULTS: All consecutive adult patients who underwent ITVS for severe non-congenital TR at 12 French centres between 2007 and 2017 were included. We identified 466 patients (60 ± 16 years, 49% female, functional TR in 49%). In-hospital mortality rate was 10%. We derived and internally validated a scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapping with 1000 re-samples. The final risk score ranged from 0 to 12 points and included eight parameters: age ≥70 years, New York Heart Association Class III-IV, right-sided heart failure signs, daily dose of furosemide ≥125 mg, glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min, elevated bilirubin, left ventricular ejection fraction <60%, and moderate/severe right ventricular dysfunction. Tricuspid regurgitation mechanism was not an independent predictor of outcome. Observed and predicted in-hospital mortality rates increased from 0% to 60% and from 1% to 65%, respectively, as the score increased from 0 up to ≥9 points. Apparent and bias-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.81 and 0.75, respectively, much higher than the logistic EuroSCORE (0.67) or EuroSCORE II (0.63). CONCLUSION: We propose TRI-SCORE as a dedicated risk score model based on eight easy to ascertain parameters to inform patients and physicians regarding the risk of ITVS and guide the clinical decision-making process of patients with severe TR, especially as transcatheter therapies are emerging (www.tri-score.com).