Changing sensitivity to cold weather in Texas power demand
Blake Shaffer, Daniel Quintero, Joshua D. Rhodes
Abstract
We estimate the effect of heightened temperature sensitivity on electricity demand in Texas during the February 2021 blackout event. Using 20 years of hourly data, we estimate the relationship between temperature and electricity demand; finding demand has become more responsive to cold temperatures over time. This is consistent with the fact electric heating has similarly increased over the past 20 years in Texas. We find during the February 2021 event, average electricity demand was 8% higher, and approximately 10,000 MW higher during the peak hour, than it would have been had temperature sensitivity remained unchanged at early 2000s levels. Our results highlight that Texas's increased sensitivity to cold weather extremes is not limited to the supply side, but the demand side as well. These findings have implications to other regions that are seeking to reduce carbon emissions through the electrification of heating.