Attribution of flood impacts shows strong benefits of adaptation in Europe since 1950
Dominik Paprotny, Aloïs Tilloy, Simon Treu, Anna Buch, Michalis Vousdoukas, Luc Feyen, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel
Abstract
Flood impacts in Europe are considered to be increasing, but attribution of impacts to climatic and societal drivers of past floods has been limited to a selection of recent events. Here, we present an impact attribution study covering 1729 riverine, flash, coastal, and compound events that were responsible for an estimated 83 to 96% of flood-related impacts in Europe between 1950 and 2020. We show that, in most regions, the magnitude of flood impacts relative to the 1950 baseline has been regulated primarily by direct human actions. The population and economic value at risk have increased, but the effect of exposure growth has been largely compensated by reductions in vulnerability due to improved risk management. Observed long-term changes in climate and human alterations of river catchments were also important drivers of flood hazard in many regions, but ultimately less relevant for trends in total, continental-wide impacts.