Energy Demand Forecasting Scenarios for Buildings Using Six AI Models

Abstract

Understanding and forecasting energy consumption patterns is crucial for improving energy efficiency and human well-being, especially in diverse infrastructures like Spain. This research addresses a significant gap in energy demand forecasting across three building types by comparing six machine learning algorithms: Artificial Neural Networks, Random Forest, XGBoost, Radial Basis Function Network, Autoencoder, and Decision Trees. The primary aim is to identify the most effective model for predicting energy consumption based on historical data, contributing to the relationship between energy systems and urban well-being. The study emphasizes challenges in energy use and advocates for sustainable management practices. By forecasting energy demand over the next three years using linear regression, it provides actionable insights for energy providers, enhancing resilience in urban environments impacted by climate change. The findings deepen our understanding of energy dynamics across various building types and promote a sustainable energy future. Stakeholders will receive targeted recommendations for aligning energy production with consumption trends while meeting environmental responsibilities. Model performance is rigorously evaluated using metrics like Squared Mean Root Percentage Error (RMSPE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2), ensuring robust analysis. Training times for models in the LUCIA building ranged from 2 to 19 s, with the Decision Tree model showing the shortest times, highlighting the need to balance computational efficiency with model performance.

Topics & Concepts