Mapping the endemicity and seasonality of clinical malaria for intervention targeting in Haiti using routine case data
Ewan Cameron, Alyssa J. Young, Katherine A. Twohig, Emilie Pothin, Darlene Bhavnani, Amber Dismer, Jean Baptiste Merilien, Karen E. S. Hamre, Phoebe Meyer, Arnaud Le Menach, Justin M Cohen, Samson Marseille, Jean Frantz Lemoine, Marc-Aurèle Telfort, Michelle Chang, Kimberly Y. Won, Alaine Knipes, Eric Rogier, Punam Amratia, Daniel J. Weiss, Peter W. Gething, Katherine E. Battle
Abstract
Towards the goal of malaria elimination on Hispaniola, the National Malaria Control Program of Haiti and its international partner organisations are conducting a campaign of interventions targeted to high-risk communities prioritised through evidence-based planning. Here we present a key piece of this planning: an up-to-date, fine-scale endemicity map and seasonality profile for Haiti informed by monthly case counts from 771 health facilities reporting from across the country throughout the 6-year period from January 2014 to December 2019. To this end, a novel hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework was developed in which a latent, pixel-level incidence surface with spatio-temporal innovations is linked to the observed case data via a flexible catchment sub-model designed to account for the absence of data on case household locations. These maps have focussed the delivery of indoor residual spraying and focal mass drug administration in the Grand'Anse Department in South-Western Haiti.