Composite score for prediction of 30‐day orthopedic surgery outcomes
Ian F. Caplan, Eric Winter, Gregory Glauser, Stephen Goodrich, Scott D. McClintock, Eric L. Hume, Neil R. Malhotra
Abstract
The LACE+ (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, and Emergency department visits in the past 6 months) risk-prediction tool has never been tested in an orthopedic surgery population. LACE+ may help physicians more effectively identify and support high-risk orthopedics patients after hospital discharge. LACE+ scores were retrospectively calculated for all consecutive orthopedic surgery patients (n = 18 893) at a multi-center health system over 3 years (2016-2018). Coarsened exact matching was employed to create "matched" study groups with different LACE+ score quartiles (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4). Outcomes were compared between quartiles. In all, 1444 patients were matched between Q1 and Q4 (n = 2888); 2079 patients between Q2 and Q4 (n = 4158); 3032 patients between Q3 and Q4 (n = 6064). Higher LACE+ scores significantly predicted 30D readmission risk for Q4 vs Q1 and Q4 vs Q3 (P < .001). Larger LACE+ scores also significantly predicted 30D risk of ED visits for Q4 vs Q1, Q4 vs Q2, and Q4 vs Q3 (P < .001). Increased LACE+ score also significantly predicted 30D risk of reoperation for Q4 vs Q1 (P = .018), Q4 vs Q2 (P < .001), and Q4 vs Q3 (P < .001).