Agent-based modelling for market acceptance of electric vehicles: Evidence from China
Xingjun Huang, Yun Lin, Fuli Zhou, Ming K. Lim, Simin Chen
Abstract
Inadequate consumer adoption has become a major obstacle to the diffusion of electric vehicles. Understanding and interfering with decision-making of these consumers may be the key to the acceptance of electric vehicles. In this study, an improved agent-based modelling is proposed to simulate the market acceptance of electric vehicles under multi-policy scenarios. The logic of consumer decision-making is portrayed by integrating consumer preferences, charging facilities, and the impact of government subsidies. The results show that the current consumers prefer plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and their attitude towards electric vehicles is more negative. A hybrid policy consisting of government subsidies and charging facility construction is the most effective strategy, where subsidies help stabilize consumption and charging facility construction facilitates the rapid electrification of vehicles in the current market. Moreover, increasing demand for sustainable consumption requires continuous upgrading of EV production technology. Based on these results, policy implications and suggestions for future electric vehicle industry are discussed.