The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland ERM-CH23
Αθανάσιος Παπαδόπουλος, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philipp Kästli, Florian Haslinger, Stefan Wiemer
Abstract
Abstract. Understanding seismic risk at both the national and sub-national levels is essential for devising effective strategies and interventions aimed at its mitigation. The National Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. Having been developed as a national model, ERM-CH23 relies on very high-resolution site-amplification and building exposure datasets, which distinguishes it from most regional models to-date. Several loss types are evaluated, ranging from structural/nonstructural and contents economic losses, to human losses, such as deaths, injuries and displaced population. In this paper, we offer a snapshot of ERM-CH23, summarize key details on the development of its components, highlight important results and provide comparisons with other models.