Prediction of thromboembolic events and mortality by the CHADS2 and the CHA2DS2-VASc in COVID-19
Juan Caro‐Codón, Gregory Y.H. Lip, Juan R. Rey, Ángel Manuel Iniesta, Sandra Rosillo, Sergio Castrejón‐Castrejón, Laura Rodríguez‐Sotelo, Jose M. García‐Veas, Irene Marco Clement, Luis A. Martinez, Lorena Martín‐Polo, Carlos Merino, Marcel Martínez‐Cossiani, Antonio Buño Soto, Luis Gonzalez‐Valle, Alicia Herrero, Esteban López de Sá, José Luís Merino
Abstract
AIMS: Age, sex, and cardiovascular disease have been linked to thromboembolic complications and poorer outcomes in COVID-19. We hypothesize that CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores may predict thromboembolic events and mortality in COVID-19. METHODS AND RESULTS: COVID-19 hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from 1 March to 20 April 2020 who completed at least 1-month follow-up or died were studied. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were calculated. Given the worse prognosis of male patients in COVID-19, a modified CHA2DS2-VASc score (CHA2DS2-VASc-M) in which 1 point was given to male instead of female was also calculated. The associations of these scores with laboratory results, thromboembolic events, and death were analysed. A total of 3042 patients (mean age 62.3 ± 20.3 years, 54.9% male) were studied and 115 (3.8%) and 626 (20.6%) presented a definite thromboembolic event or died, respectively, during the study period [median follow 59 (50-66) days]. Higher score values were associated with more marked abnormalities of inflammatory and cardiac biomarkers. Mortality was significantly higher with increasing scores for CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VASc-M (P < 0.001 for trend). The CHA2DS2-VASc-M showed the best predictive value for mortality [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.820, P < 0.001 for comparisons]. All scores had poor predictive value for thromboembolic events (AUC 0.497, 0.490, and 0.541, respectively). CONCLUSION: The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VASc-M scores are significantly associated with all-cause mortality but not with thromboembolism in COVID-19 patients. They are simple scoring systems in everyday use that may facilitate initial 'quick' prognostic stratification in COVID-19.