Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data
Ines Mesa‐Eguiagaray, Sarah H. Wild, Philip S. Rosenberg, Sheila M. Bird, David H. Brewster, Peter S Hall, David Cameron, David Morrison, Jonine D. Figueroa
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology. METHODS: Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to assess whether significant differences were observed in incidence trends by ER status. RESULTS: Overall, ER-positive tumour incidence increased by 0.4%/year (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.1, 1.0). Among routinely screened women aged 50-69 years, we observed an increase in ASR from 1997 to 2011 (1.6%/year, 95% CI: 1.2-2.1). ER-negative tumour incidence decreased among all ages by 2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.9 to -1.1%) over the study period. Compared with the 1941-1959 birth cohort, women born in 1912-1940 had lower incidence rate ratios (IRR) for ER+ tumours and women born in 1960-1986 had lower IRR for ER- tumours. CONCLUSIONS: Future incidence and survival reporting should be monitored by molecular subtypes to inform clinical planning and cancer control programmes.