Assessing causal dependencies in climatic indices
Riccardo Silini, Giulio Tirabassi, Marcelo Barreiro, Laura Ferranti, Cristina Masoller
Abstract
Abstract We evaluate causal dependencies between thirteen indices that represent large-scale climate patterns (El Nino/Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, etc.) using a recently proposed approach based on a linear approximation of the transfer entropy. We demonstrate that this methodology identifies causal relations that are well-known, as well as it uncovers some relations which, to the best of our knowledge, have not yet been reported in the literature. We also identify significant changes in causal dependencies that have occurred in the last three decades.
Topics & Concepts
ClimatologyPacific decadal oscillationEl Niño Southern OscillationTransfer entropyOscillation (cell signaling)Environmental scienceScale (ratio)Computer scienceGeologyGeographyArtificial intelligencePrinciple of maximum entropyCartographyBiologyGeneticsClimate variability and modelsComplex Systems and Time Series AnalysisEcosystem dynamics and resilience