Research on short-term precipitation forecasting method based on CEEMDAN-GRU algorithm
Hua Xu, Zongkai Guo, Yu Cao, Xu Cheng, Qiong Zhang, Dan Chen
Abstract
Precipitation forecasting is vital for managing disasters, urban traffic, and agriculture. This study develops an improved model for short-term precipitation forecasting by combining Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). Using precipitation data from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2022, as a sample, the model capitalizes on CEEMDAN's superior signal decomposition capabilities and GRU's ability to capture nonlinear dynamic patterns in time series. To assess the model's effectiveness, comparisons were conducted with 12 benchmark models, including CEEMDAN-LSTM, EMD-GRU, EMD-LSTM, BI-LSTM, GRU, LSTM, and TCN. The results demonstrate that the CEEMDAN-GRU model achieves higher accuracy and stability in short-term precipitation forecasting. Leveraging an Adam optimizer with adaptive learning rate reduction enhances convergence and ensures reliable predictions, achieving an R²of 0.7915, MAE of 0.05382, and MSE of 0.09081.