Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources
Rutger Dankers, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Abstract
Abstract This paper reviews the sources of uncertainty in physical climate impact assessments. It draws on examples from related fields such as climate modelling and numerical weather prediction in discussing how to interpret the results of multi-model ensembles and the role of model evaluation. Using large-scale, multi-model simulations of hydrological extremes as an example, we demonstrate how large uncertainty at the local scale does not preclude more robust conclusions at the global scale. Finally, some recommendations are made: climate impact studies should be clear about the questions they want to address, transparent about the uncertainties involved, and honest about the assumptions being made.
Topics & Concepts
Scale (ratio)Climate modelEnvironmental scienceClimate changeClimatologyMeteorologyComputer scienceEnvironmental resource managementEconometricsGeographyMathematicsGeologyOceanographyCartographyHydrology and Watershed Management StudiesFlood Risk Assessment and ManagementClimate variability and models