Seismic-Resilient Planning for Integrated Energy System: A Risk-Economic Coordination Perspective
Qirun Sun, Zhi Wu, Wei Gu, Zhao Yang Dong, Pengxiang Liu, Haifeng Qiu, Amer M. Y. M. Ghias, Yuping Lu, Yu Zheng
Abstract
Earthquakes along plate boundary zones can cause extensive damage to energy infrastructure and lead to significant economic losses. In view of the high-impact low-probability (HILP) feature of seismic events, this paper proposes a seismic-resilient planning approach for protecting integrated energy system (IES) against earthquakes from a risk-economic coordination perspective. Specially, a novel hierarchical scenario aggregation method is developed to characterize probabilistic seismic events’ distinct impact on IES at different magnitudes. To balance the cost and resilience enhancement, a two-stage risk-based IES planning model with pre-event reinforcement and post-event power-gas-heat coordinated dispatch is established. The conditional value-at-risk measure is introduced to mitigate tail load loss risks under extreme HILP seismic scenarios. Furthermore, to accelerate the modeling solution with mixed-integer recourse and CVaR structure under massive scenarios, a tailored Benders decomposition (TBD) method is developed. Case studies demonstrate the merits of the proposed method in deriving resilient IES planning decisions against uncertain seismic attacks in an economic-risk balancing manner. The effectiveness of the hierarchical scenario aggregation method and TBD algorithm is also verified.