Probability of rainfall-induced landslides coupled with effective-duration threshold and soil moisture
Kailiang Zhao, Haijun Qiu, Ya Liu, Zijing Liu, Wenchao Huangfu, Bingzhe Tang, Dongdong Yang, Guoqing Yang
Abstract
Study region Shaanxi Province, including the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi, the Guanzhong Plain, and the Qinba Mountains in southern Shaanxi. Study focus Frequent extreme rainfall exacerbates the risk of rainfall-induced landslides, highlighting the importance of rainfall thresholds quantification for accurate hazard prevention. New hydrological insights for the region The rainfall on the day and 7–28 cm soil moisture have a strong impact on landslide occurrences. The effective duration threshold for rainfall-induced landslides is largest in the Qinba Mountains area (high vegetation cover), and the 50 % threshold curve has a better early warning effect. Under high soil moisture and rainfall conditions, the probability for rainfall-induced landslides increases. In contrast, the probability threshold for landslides in areas with high vegetation coverage is also higher. This study quantified the probability thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides based on the coupled effective duration threshold and soil moisture. The results provide a theoretical reference for the precise prevention of landslides.